Corona question

Hayburner
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Corona question

Postby Hayburner » Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:48 pm

Has anyone else wondered how we will really know that it's safe to resume a semi normal lifestyle again?

Is it always going to be here and once they get a vaccine we should all get it? I don't get the flu shot, but this would be something almost mandatory due to the severity of this virus.

Even if they "release" us in May I don't think I will truly feel safe especially since I care for my 92 year old dad a few days a week.

How will I know it's safe for him to go out?

Tanga
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Re: Corona question

Postby Tanga » Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:25 pm

Did you watch 60 Minutes the week before last? They had some good reporting on the people working on tests and vaccines. The woman working on the vaccine said best case scenario said a year from now. They're working on an antibody test which I think will be a good measure of safety in knowing who is safe. And of course they are working on things to help people who actually get it badly.

Honestly, I wouldn't feel very safe until the vaccine comes out. Yes, we will be past the curve in a few months, but that does not mean people won't still get it. It means we won't have the high numbers at the same time. I'm not an at risk person, but I don't think it will be safe for a long while. I would take extreme measure with your father for a long time.

I think it's going to be a long time before it feels "safe," and when it is, the world will have changed in so many ways, hopefully for the better.

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Re: Corona question

Postby lorilu » Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:57 pm

I agree. I think right now the most vulnerable among us are getting it now.... and hopefully will have some residual immunity for some (undetermined) length of time. Same for those who get it but without symptoms or mild symptoms. For the rest of us, who do not get it in this go round, we will still be vulnerable - but we are learning more every day about how to treat it, the vaccine is in the works, and our social behavior (hopefully) is changed IRT washing and recognizing when you should not go out socially (when you have a cough, etc.) SO even tho I thin we will all get some version of it eventually, I am optimistic that it will not be an eternal crisis of too few hospital beds for too many too sick people. I also know that viruses change over time, and that might change their virulence.

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Chisamba
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Re: Corona question

Postby Chisamba » Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:23 pm

Well the realistic epidemiological model would be rather grim.

This Document below are notes from a panel discussions with experts from UCSF regarding Covid-19. It is informative and sobering.

From: ​Cook, Scott​ <​Scott_Cook@intuit.com​>
Date: Wed, Mar 11, 2020 at 3:29 PM
Subject: Deep insight on COVID-19 from UCSF's top infectious disease researchers To:
With Brook Byer’s help I was able to arrange a discussion yesterday with USCF’s top researchers in infectious disease. Here are the notes. I bolded some of the more notable comments from the researchers.
UC San Francisco is either the #1 or #2 hospital in California depending on which survey you read. It is the 4th largest medical research center in the US, based on research grants.
scott
University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19
March 10, 2020
● Panelists
○ Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of
ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford).
Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
○ Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
○ Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
○ Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance.
Epidemiologist.
○ Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc
What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.
● Top takeaways
○ At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile.
Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the
US.
○ Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers
deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit
healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be
developed.
○ How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
○ We are moving from containment to
○ 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months.
After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
○ about 1.5 million Americans may die.

This is just realistic analysis based on what we currently know.

The disease will likely have 2 phases . It will subside, then flare up again.

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StraightForward
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Re: Corona question

Postby StraightForward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:25 am

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-ne ... 180974533/

We need a vaccine, and reliable antibody test. Until then, even with strict social distancing, it's going to be a slow rolling crisis. Older people won't be safe until there's an effective vaccine available. Current measures just buy time to develop the vaccines and treatments. Flattening the curve is good for that, but means an attenuated timeline that the virus is out there in the population and likely mutating.
Keep calm and canter on.

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Re: Corona question

Postby Hayburner » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:39 pm

Thank you all for the details.

My fears are real and even when it flattens out, I will be keeping my guard up with myself and my dad.

I finally retired last week and I can't go anywhere! I was looking forward to long lunches, shopping, more time with friends and family and a few spa treatments. Those things will be put on indefinite hold. Being safe from this virus is more important that's for sure.

Be safe my friends!

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Re: Corona question

Postby heddylamar » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:02 pm

Ditto everything StraightForward stated.

Until there are vaccines, life as we knew it will not return. This is not a temporary disaster (like an earthquake or hurricane) with an end date. Until there's an effective preventative treatment rolled out AND testing/development of vaccines for future strains AND a culture change (regular, sustained social distancing, handwashing, no face touching and regular face mask wearing), COVID-19 and its brethren are going to rule our lives.

But, for that to be sustainable, we need some massive societal changes from the top down — universal basic income, universal health care, universal sick leave, etc.

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Re: Corona question

Postby piedmontfields » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:19 pm

Something that is challenging for us all to realize is that when we "go back to normal", it will be utterly different. We will have to continue a lot of distancing + other public health behaviors and have a rapid response when there are new surges of infections. Even once a vaccine and reliable antibody test is achieved, we will need to behave differently to get *everyone* vaccinated and tested.

I've been asked by work to think about a "celebration" for when we return to work (we are all remote now). I'm puzzled by this request as 1. We're not coming back anytime soon; 2. We won't return to work in the same way (physical distancing will still be in place and we'll need to implement some training/management support on that) and 3. We haven't seen the worst of it yet in our area. That said, I'm thinking about some virtual options for staff bonding and support, including a mini-session on what kids have been learning/doing at home while their parents are working/on video meetings!

I'm slightly hopeful that in the US we might realize that a greater social-health-housing safety net is essential for the well-being our of country---but at the same time I live in a part of the country that is largely ignorant of how valuable this would be to all. For some, the message they are receiving is that the US government is messing up their lives again and should just be made as weak and small as possible (not that government is failing to do enough for the well being of the nation as a whole).

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StraightForward
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Re: Corona question

Postby StraightForward » Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:23 pm

Updated projections with a good discussion of the nuances to consider based on location.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... by-summer/
Keep calm and canter on.

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Re: Corona question

Postby Tarlo Farm » Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:53 pm

Let me preface my opinion with the understanding that this VERY contagious, and new (novel), and deadly to many who get it. And many have it and are asymptomatic, sometimes referred to as "carriers".
In time, as with any virus, this will mutate to a new form, just as cold and flu viruses do. In time, many will become immune and/or asymptomatic as many already are with various types of cold and flu viruses.
Many will die as many do from the flu, and if your respiratory system is compromised, even a cold can be deadly.
In a global world, pandemics will be the new norm. We will wash our hands more often, hug less, stay home more (especially if sick). And people will still die as many do from contagious viruses.
But we will get back to something resembling normal. How many of you were aware, before this, of how many people die every year from the flu? And we don't freak out, the economy doesn't crash, the world goes on.
This too shall pass.

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Re: Corona question

Postby Tanga » Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:56 pm

Yes, it will pass. It will be awhile, and we will have to change the way we do things.

I'm hoping this is a turning point in history where we have lived through interesting times, and it was tough, but it made things better. I'm hoping we come out of this with the traitor in chief and all of it's friends in jail, good, decent people who care about others in charge (I wasn't thrilled by Newsome before, but I think he's amazing now--governor of CA) with the young people energized to take over and change the world, new ideas about how and where we can work and not needing to commute so much, new ideas about how the world can work in so many ways we can't imagine.

It is scary, but I think so much good can come out of this. (And I am OK and will be, but I am struggling with the stress of thinking about it on and off every day.)

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Re: Corona question

Postby Quelah » Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:01 am

Ditto Tanga. I haven't agreed with everything Newsom has done, but he FINALLY gave CALFire the money they've been asking for forever, and with this current thing, I don't think we (CA) could have a better hand on the helm. Also grateful to the leadership of the Bay Area counties who started the SIP.

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Re: Corona question

Postby LeoApp » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:06 pm

I hate to burst peoples' bubble, but there may never be a vaccine. There still is no vaccine for HIV. With that said, even if things start to open up in the next month or two, it will be focused, small in scale, and regional in nature. People who are vulnerable like your dad still need to isolate. No doubt about that. Will there be a herd immunity at some point? It depends on if you get immunity from the disease after you've contracted it. The conventional wisdom is that you do, but it is unknown how long it lasts. There are just too many unknowns with this horrible virus. Even if no vaccine is found, if some meds could be found that can lessen the severity, even that would ease the strain on the healthcare system. It seems that some meds help some people, and it is not understood yet why some people die from it and some have no symptoms.


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